Escalating Clashes in Ethiopia Raise Concerns over Return to Full-Scale Civil War

Fears of a renewed civil war in Ethiopia are escalating following an offensive by Tigrayan fighters into the neighboring regions of Afar and Amhara, coupled with the creation of a new rebel coalition seeking to overthrow Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's government. The developments follow a 2020-2022 conflict between the Ethiopian military and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) that resulted in approximately 600,000 deaths. Both sides are currently blaming each other for the resumption of hostilities.

Rebel Coalition Formed as TPLF Advances

Seven armed factions, including the TPLF, announced the formation of the Ethiopian Peoples’ Forces Alliance for Survival on Sunday to depose the federal government. On Wednesday, TPLF forces took control of three regional airports from federal police, leading state-owned carrier Ethiopian Airlines to halt flights to the area. Flights to the historic town of Lalibela were also grounded on Thursday due to nearby clashes.

Amanuel Assefa, vice-president of the TPLF, stated that Tigrayan forces are involved in a full-blown war alongside local armed groups in Afar and Amhara. Foreign security and humanitarian sources reported heavy artillery attacks near the Afar town of Yallo, as well as TPLF control over the border town of Abala and active fighting near Weldiya in Amhara.

Government Response and Humanitarian Impacts

In its initial public statement regarding the renewed combat, the Ethiopian military claimed on Thursday that it had repulsed the attacks, reporting more than 500 opposition fighters killed, wounded, or captured. Meanwhile, residents in cities such as Adigrat are panic-buying, reporting severe shortages of food and escalating prices for essential medicines amid fears of siege conditions similar to the previous conflict.

Geopolitical Allegations and Diplomatic Appeals

Analysts note that shifting alliances have placed former adversaries together, including the Fano insurgent group, which previously allied with federal forces against the TPLF. Prime Minister Abiy's spokesperson, Billene Seyoum, accused the new alliance of receiving financial backing from Eritrea, an allegation Eritrea has consistently denied. Addressing the UN General Assembly on Wednesday, Ethiopian President Taye Atske-Selassie Amde denounced foreign interference and maintained that Ethiopia has shown immense restraint.

The fighting presents the most significant strain on the 2022 Pretoria peace agreement to date. African Union Chair Mahmoud Ali Youssouf and European Union representatives have called for an immediate de-escalation, maximum restraint, and a return to direct negotiations to prevent further regional instability.